9:30am Tuesday, June 28:
Today will be a final warm and muggy day ahead of another extended
spell of relative comfortable summer weather. Scattered late-day
showers (perhaps a few isolated severe storms) will develop as a cold
front crosses the region this evening. Somewhat cooler, drier air will
then take hold for the final two days of June, ending what has been an
unremarkable and uneventful first month of meteorological Summer.
July will begin with the return of jet stream troughiness over the
Great Lakes and Northeast. This pattern has been a recurrent theme in
recent weeks, and it's blessing for folks who dislike sustained heat
in our region. While warm air occasionally attempts a move into the
region, this upper-level pattern has brought frequent fronts to clear
and cool the air. Another front in the series will move through on
Friday (chance of showers), thus ushering in another comfortable air
mass for the July 4th weekend.
One thing to watch is how far south this front moves before
stalling--should it stall not far south of the MD border, then this
opens the door for a few showers this weekend. Hopefully high pressure
will press it farther south, so that we have a dry, pleasant spell
through Monday, July 4th.
This pattern can't last forever, right? Actually, it's my sense
that this pattern is winding down...and the jet stream will soon shift
into a more typical summer configuration. If I'm right about this,
temps will rise high into the 80s for several days next week and
possibly hit the 90s on a couple of days between July 6th and 12th.
Weak cold fronts will likely still approach the county from the north,
but they are less likely to drive far to our south. Still, this may
set us up for a bout or two of severe weather into mid-July. --Horst