MU's Current Conditions: (at 07:46) Temp: 58 F | Dew Point: 58 | Wind: ENE - 10 mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* Unsettled Week Ahead With Some Much-Needed Rain *

Monday, September 26, 2016:
In contrast to the persistently warm, dry conditions of September's first three weeks, the last few days of the month will serve up cooler, damper conditions. The first minor weathermaker is a front that will cross the region tonight with a few showers. Behind this system we'll get one seasonably nice day with sunshine and highs in the mid 70s (Tuesday).

The period Wednesday through Saturday presents a gross anomaly as a large slow-moving upper-level low sets up over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region. While a jet stream ridge has anchored warm, dry conditions across these areas in recent weeks, this temporary shift to a sluggish trough means we'll likely see at least a little rain on three--perhaps even four--days later this week. The period Wednesday night into Thursday looks like the best chance for a few periods of soaking rain as a stalled front along the East coast becomes active (i.e. rain producing) as the upper-level system cuts off to our West. A 36 - 72 hour period of low-level easterly flow will make for cloudy, damp conditions even when rain isn't falling.

Friday afternoon and night is a tough forecast to nail down (as of Monday) since the location of the upper-level low is uncertain by week's end. In the worst case, a period of rain would linger into Friday night, whereas a more optimistic forecaster would be for partly sunny and mild Friday afternoon. Either way, a linger shower or two is possible into Saturday, but the trend is for improving conditions over the the upper-level system finally lifts out across New England. Total rainfall through Saturday should be somewhere between 1 - 3 inches...thus, making a dent in the five-inch year-to-date rainfall deficit.

Despite this week's cooler, damper conditions I believe the large scale pattern will still favor mild (but not hot) conditions into mid-October. So once we get rid of this week's pesky upper-level system I expect we'll see a return of mild and mainly stable conditions for next week into mid-month...although, in terms of precipitation, the tropics remain a wild card during what is normally one of our driest months. --Horst

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