MU's Current Conditions: (at 01:06) Temp: 67 F | Dew Point: 59 | Wind: - calm mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* Warm, Muggy End to August *

Thursday, August 25, 2016:
After a three-day spell of September-like conditions, today marks the return of dog days conditions as the dew point is back in the low 70s and temperatures climbing through the 80s. Friday may yield a high 90 degrees--if so, it will be the 21st such day this year. Fortunately, this warm spell will not match what we experienced earlier this month (highs in the mid 90s).

The final weekend of August looks pretty nice with a sunny, warm Saturday and a partly sunny Sunday. Shower threat this weekend is minimal, although it will increase gradually during the first half of next week as a weak front limps south across the region next Monday and Tuesday. Ahead of this front, another 90-degree day is possible on Monday. A late-day shower or storm is possible Monday, and then Tuesday may feature some clouds and a couple showers as the front stalls near the Mason-Dixon Line.

Meanwhile, we'll need to keep an eye on the tropics as a wave, now approaching the Bahamas, moves into a more favorable environment for development this weekend. While not a for-sure, there's about a 70% chance of named tropical storm forming as this disturbance tracks towards southern Florida. Much uncertainty exists, but remnant tropical moisture may move into the southeastern states the middle of next week. Should some of this moisture intersect a boundary stalled nearby here...then some rainfall is possible here the second half of next weekend. Stay tuned... --Horst



Monday, August 22, 2016:
A large area of Canadian high pressure has brought to an end the 11-day spell of unseasonably hot and humid conditions. Early week high temperatures will be limited to the low 80s, while overnight lows dip into the comfortable 50s. Of course, it's still August and the heat and humidity will surely return...probably soon than later. In fact, high temps will jump back into the mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 80s on Thursday, as high pressure moves off to our East and southwesterly flow returns. There's even an outside chance that temps will touch 90 degrees late this week, but I do NOT see a return of the extreme conditions (mid 90s with high humidity) we experienced over the past two weeks.

Looking towards August's final days, I see a gradually more progressive pattern developing with a chance of a cold front entering the Commonwealth every few days. Brief warm spells will crescendo ahead of each front (highs 86 - 90), then pull back to near 80 for a day or two behind the front. Ultimately, a warm bias will continue in the mean and, thus, August will likely conclude as one of the Top 10 warmest on record here in Lancaster, in aggregate.

Precipitation-wise, we're in a relatively dry pattern...with only passing showers possible as fronts approach every few days. However, it's getting to be that time of year when the tropics come more alive--therefore, I certainly can't rule out some tropical moisture getting into the mix towards month's end...although I see nothing specific to key on at this time. --Horst




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