MUWIC
Newsletter - January 2007
(Issued: January 3, 2007)
Eric J. Horst, Director
************************************************************************ LEAD STORY: “2006 Ends with Unseasonable
Warmth”
It sure wasn’t hard to stay warm this holiday season. Not
only was there no measureable snowfall, but November and December both ranked
as the fifth warmest on record here in This year-end warmth closely parallels what we experienced in November and December 2001. The temperature departures from normal then were +5.6 and +6.5, compared with +5.0 and +6.6 this past November and December. Therefore, it’s tempting to view the winter 2001-2002 as an analog for the rest of this winter. January and February 2002 both averaged much above normal with a total of only 8.2 inches of snow. However, this analog may not pan out completely as winter 2001-2002 featured ENSO neutral conditions, while this winter we are in the midst of a solid El Nino event. So while a warm bias may continue for much of the winter ahead, I expect this winter will be more stormy and potentially volatile than 2001-2002 (which produced few storms and below normal precipitation). Check out the January Outlook below for a closer look at the long-range forecast. ************************************************************************ STAT OF THE MONTH
Eleven days in December featured an average temperature that was 10 degrees or more above normal, whereas only one possessed an average temperature that was 10 degrees below normal. ************************************************************************ DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)
Average High Temp: 50.2 F Average Low Temp: 30.9 F Average Monthly Temp: 40.5 F (Departure from
Snowfall: trace (Departure from Total Precipitation: 2.11 inches (Departure from Annual Precipitation: 48.26 inches (Departure from ************************************************************************ JANUARY NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS
Normal high/low temperatures for January are 39/22, respectively. The record high for the month is 77 degrees (January 27, 1950) and the record low is -18 (January 21, 1994). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 3.01 inches. Average snowfall for the month is 8 inches. ************************************************************************ JANUARY OUTLOOK
December
concluded a remarkable 6.6 degrees above normal, ranking it as the 5th warmest
December on record here in Short-term, I see no significant changes over the next 7 to 10 days. The week ahead will continue the trend from December with temperatures averaging about 6 degrees above normal for the period January 2nd - 8th. A brief, glancing shot of Canadian air may work through the first half of next week, however, global teleconnections still do not support the cold air locking in over the Northeast. So, after a couple of seasonably cool days (Jan 9 & 10th), conditions should bounce back above normal by late next week. Beyond
that, it's a tough call to identify a trend for the second half of January.
Given the moderately strong El Nino, however, it's likely that a mild bias will
continue at times throughout the rest of the winter. Building arctic chill can
still make a dramatic arrival if any high-latitude blocking develops (a -NAO configuration),
and I continue to believe that we'll see a couple of spells of winter weather.
But given this season's robust El Nino it's unlikely there will be any
long-lasting chill from the Northern Plains and COPYRIGHT 2007 Millersville University Published monthly by the Subscribe on our homepage at www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic ********************************************************************* *** Bookmark our web site at: www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic *** ************************************************************************ |