MUWIC Newsletter - February 2004

(Issued: February 2, 2004)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

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LEAD STORY: “Coldest January in a Decade”

After a mild New Year’s weekend, arctic air moved into the Northeastern US resulting in the coldest month since January 1994. In fact, the period of January 7^th through the 31^st averaged about 11 degrees below normal rivaling the coldest January on record (1977) for this same period. For the entire month, however, the –7.6F degree departure from normal tied as the seventh coldest on record.

Precipitation-wise, snowfall was nearly double the long-term average for January as about 15 inches fell. Surprisingly, total liquid-equivalent precipitation (melted snow/ice and rain combined) came in about an inch below normal. As we now advance into February, a more stormy pattern is developing while the arctic air is beginning to wane. See the February Outlook below for a preview of what’s to come.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT – Launch of WIC Streaming Video Webcasts!

The MU Weather Information Center (WIC) is now producing Streaming Video webcasts, a first-of-its-kind product among meteorology programs nationwide. Issued most days and available on-demand, these webcasts provide expert commentary on local and national weather conditions, as well as storm outlooks and long-range forecasts. WIC Director, Eric Horst, says “our webcasts look very different from commercial TV weathercasts, as we strive to dig deeper into the causes of the changing weather and the science behind the weather maps.” Furthermore, WIC will produce a series of educational features, as well as occasional vignettes on current research and other hot-topic subjects. Access the WIC webcasts at: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/html/streaming.htm

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

For the first time in eight years, temperatures dipped below 0F here at the MU Weather Center with a low of –1F on the morning of January 10^th. The last official below-zero reading occurred on February 6, 1996 (-6F).

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JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

Average High Temp: 29.5 F

Average Low Temp: 15.6 F

Average Monthly Temp: 22.5 F

(Departure from Normal: -7.6 F)

Snowfall: 15.2 inches

(Departure from Normal: +2.2)

Total Precipitation (liquid equivalent): 2.06 inches

(Departure from Normal: -0.95)

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FEBRUARY NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

Normal high/low temperatures range from 39/21 during the first week of the month to 45/26 by month’s end. The record high for February is 78 degrees (25th in 1930) and the record low is –17 F (7th in 1935). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 2.47 inches. Average snowfall for the month is about 8.2 inches.

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FEBRUARY OUTLOOK

As mentioned above, January was the seventh coldest in our 90-year database, and I do not expect February to continue the trend of persistent extreme cold. Instead, I see the pattern becoming more zonal (west to east flow) with an increasing parade of moist storm systems traversing the country. Such a progressive pattern will make it difficult for sharp plunges of arctic air to drop into the eastern US and stick around in the Northeast as was common in January. More likely are glancing blows of Canadian air that will dip us below normal for a few days at a time, followed by a warm-up to normal or even a bit above normal for a day or two. Therefore, I expect February to finish up normal to a few degrees below normal—say, a departure from normal of between 0 and –4 degrees.

Expect above normal snowfall and precipitation. While one big storm (a hit or miss) can make or break this forecast, the active storm track that’s ramping up looks like it will send disturbances our way every 3 or 4 days. Of course, individual storm tracks can vary greatly, but it’s my sense that the primary track will be up along the west side of the Appalachians with secondary lows tending to develop along the east coast. Such a setup favors the dreaded “winter mix” of snow, ice, and rain. However, all it takes it one storm to rapidly develop along the Carolinas for a major snowstorm to hit the area. So, while I think small nuisance events will be more common, I can’t rule out the possibility of a major snowstorm (6 or more inches).