MUWIC Newsletter - February 2006

(Issued: February 1, 2006)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

************************************************************************

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT – 5^th ANNUAL MUWIC OPEN HOUSE

You are invited to the 6^th Annual Weather Information Center Open House on February 22, 2006. Stop by room 401 Caputo Hall between 6:00 – 8:00pm. We’d enjoy meeting you! Visit our website for information: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/html/contact.htm

************************************************************************

LEAD STORY: 4^th Warmest January on Record

March-like warmth. Robin sightings. An absence of snowfall. These are the things we’ll remember of January 2006.

In aggregate, the month averaged 8.4 degree above normal. This makes it the 4^th warmest January on record, behind 1950 (+10.8), 1998 (+10.0), and 1932 (+9.8). Just as remarkable was the lack of snowfall. Since 1926, only two other Januaries failed to produce a measurable snowfall—1934, 1973, and now 2006 all share the distinction of least-snowy Januaries.

The persistent warmth has fostered talk of global warming as a possible cause. With the exception of 1998, all of the aforementioned warm and snowless Januaries occurred long before advent of global warming theory. While there has indeed been a one-degree Celsius global warming over the last century, you can’t point to a warm month or season as a sign of this warming. Short-term anomalies naturally vary widely based on global jet stream patterns, and this winter’s patterns have favored extreme positions. February looks to continue this trend, as a turn to much colder conditions is developing. See the February Outlook (below) for a preview.

************************************************************************

STAT OF THE MONTH

January featured seven days with highs in the 60s, although only January 12^th set a new record high (61).

************************************************************************

JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

Average High Temp: 47.8 F

Average Low Temp: 29.3 F

Average Monthly Temp: 39.5 F

(Departure from Normal: +8.4 F)

Snowfall: Trace

(Departure from Normal: -8.0)

Total Precipitation (liquid equivalent): 3.66 inches

(Departure from Normal: +0.65)

************************************************************************

FEBRUARY NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

Normal high/low temperatures range from 39/21 during the first week of the month to 45/26 by month’s end. The record high for February is 78 degrees (25th in 1930) and the record low is –17 F (7th in 1935). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 2.47 inches. Average snowfall for the month is about 8.2 inches.

************************************************************************

FEBRUARY OUTLOOK

Let's put the rumor to rest--winter is not over! What's more, Thursday is Groundhog Day...and he better see his shadow if he wants to be on the right side of the forecast this year. Yes, it's been a remarkably warm January, but it was also remarkably cold in December. It seems that the MO of this winter is to produce only extreme conditions, with little middle ground. As we now begin February, all signals are that winter will make a decided comeback. Dust off the shovel and locate your winter coat...by next week at this time, winter will be back.

The final days of the "All-January Thaw" will play out this week. High temperatures will remain in the 40s to low 50s through Friday as another Pacific storm brings a round of rain Thursday night into Friday. Saturday and Sunday are transition days with highs returning to normal levels on Sunday (upper 30s). The big question is whether this transition will produce a significant storm on Sunday. It's impossible to make the call five days away, however, if a storm does form it could produce snow or rain changing to snow on Sunday. Stay tuned...

Beyond that, the trend is down--and then down even more--through mid-month. The jet stream is poised to amplify into western Canada, and it may eventually send true arctic air on a slide to the Northeast. Initially, the warm lakes and lack of snow cover will somewhat blunt the surge of cold air into our region. By the end of next week, however, I have a feeling we'll have some snow on the ground (one way or another). Therefore, I could see temperatures averaging 5 or more degrees below normal from February 10th - 15^th, and possibly beyond. In summary: February evolve as a replay of December with below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall.