MUWIC Newsletter - March 2002

(Issued: March 4, 2002)

 

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

 

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LEAD STORY: Warm, Dry Winter Drives Us To Drought

 

Some things don’t change on New Year’s Day, including the incredibly dry weather pattern that dominated in 2001. Last year ended as the driest year on record here in Lancaster, and we are already nearly three inches behind in precipitation since January 1st. As a result, a drought emergency was issued on February 12th.

 

Governor Mark Schweiker signed the proclamation declaring a drought emergency for 24 counties based on the dangerously low groundwater levels across many of the southcentral and eastern counties. In a drought emergency, mandatory water-use restrictions include: not serving water in eating places unless requested by the customer; closing down of indoor and outdoor ornamental fountains, waterfalls and pools unless they are needed to sustain aquatic life; and strict limitations on the watering of lawns, athletic fields, and golf courses.

 

PA drought map: http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/subject/hotopics/drought/DroughtMaps/droughtmap02122001.jpg

 

US drought map: http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/2002/drmon0226.gif

 

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STAT OF THE MONTH

 

The three-month “meteorological winter” ending February 28, 2002 was the second warmest December through February period on record in Lancaster (since 1914). While many winters feature one warm, snowless month, only the winter of 1997-98 had three consecutive months that were warmer than what we experienced this winter. However, similar warmth has occurred here prior to the last decade (see table).

 

Five Warmest Winters (Dec. – Feb.)

1.)    1997-98 (+8.0 F)

2.)    2001-02 (+5.9 F)

3.)    1931-32 (+5.7 F)

4.)    1949-50 (+5.5 F)

5.)    1952-53 (+5.1 F)

 

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

 

Up until 7:00 p.m. on February 26th, we were on track to having the driest February on record here in Lancaster. However, a cold front moving through that evening produced 0.12” of rain, thus, nudging our monthly total to 0.27”. Therefore, February 1968 remains the record driest with only 0.23” of precipitation.

 

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FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

 

Average High Temp: 48.0 F

Average Low Temp:  26.7F                                                   

Average Monthly Temp: 37.3 F                                         

(Departure from Normal: +4.7 F)

                                       

Snowfall: 0.7 inches

Total Precipitation (liquid equivalent): 0.27 inches  

(Departure from Normal: -2.20)   

Annual Precipitation: 2.65 inches              

(Departure from Normal: -2.83)

 

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MARCH NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

 

Normal high/low temperatures increase rapidly from 46/26 on March 1st to 59/36 on the 31st. The record high for March is 88 degrees (1921, 1945) and the record low is –1 F (1984). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 3.38 inches. Average snowfall for the month is about 4 inches.

 

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MARCH OUTLOOK

 

Before we look ahead, let’s look back. Last fall many forecasters, including the National Weather Service, were calling for a colder than normal winter across the northern states. In my Winter Outlook, issued in the December WIC newsletter (www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/news/news1201web.htm) I called for “highly variable temperatures and near normal snowfall”. Considering that we are now in line for having one of the ten least snowy winters and second warmest, I am definitely not going to argue for a “win” on my winter outlook. However, I do take some pleasure that I totally nailed the set-up that has prevailed all winter—extreme cold across Canada and a strong tendency towards unusual warmth in the southeast—even though the local weather did not pan out in line with my forecast.

 

That said, I do not see any dramatic changes in the current pattern anytime soon. The coldest air of the season recently invaded the US, and Lancaster will have its coldest temperatures of the season March 4th and 5th. With no jet stream blocking, however, the current turn to cold will be transient like all the others that preceded it. I expect above normal conditions will return by March 7th and 8th. I see no reason for a change from the repeating pattern of roughly two below normal days followed by several above normal days. As I called for in my Winter Outlook, I expect we’ll see glancing shots of cold air, followed by expanding warmth from the south and west. If March keeps with this pattern it will end up a few degrees above normal overall; though, in relative terms March may not be as warm as the last three months (Dec. +6.7, Jan. +6.4, Feb. +4.7).

 

Precipitation-wise, we have got a good start for the month with almost three-quarters of an inch falling on March 2nd. Another system could bring us a similar amount of precipitation by late next weekend, but we’d need several more of these events to reach the normal amount of rainfall for the month (3.28”). One favorable possibility is that continued shots of cold air from Canada will produce greater and greater atmospheric instability as the days get longer (i.e. solar heating gets stronger). Therefore, the glancing cold shots mentioned above could lead to heavier showers as we progress through March into April.

 

COPYRIGHT 2002 Millersville University

 

Published monthly by the Millersville University Weather Information Center.

Subscribe on our homepage at www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic

 

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