MUWIC Newsletter - March 2004

(Issued: March 1, 2004)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

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LEAD STORY: “February 2004: Seasonable and Uneventful (here)”

Winter weather lovers are likely suffering from the February Blues after a month of seasonable cold that couldn’t produce a snowstorm in the Lancaster area. Glancing shots of cold air teased the area, as did several storms that dropped heavy snow both to our north and south. Up to a foot of snow fell across central and northern Pennsylvania on February 3^rd, while a southern storm dropped 12 to 18 inches of snow across parts of North Carolina on February 27^th. In the end, Lancaster’s 1.3 inches of snow comes in well short of the long-term monthly average of 8 inches.

After the 7^th coldest January on record (7.6 degrees below normal), February temperatures finished up just 1.5 degrees below normal--statistically, a “near normal” month. Lingering snowcover during the first two weeks of the month helped maintain resident cold air and a three-degree below normal anomaly for the period. Given the disappearing snowcover of the final two weeks of the month, however, milder air was able to take hold resulting in seasonable conditions.

With March coming in like a lamb across the mid-Atlantic region, it might make you wonder if winter is over? Surely there is still plenty of snowcover to our north to help breed cold air, yet the Pacific jet is currently dominating the pattern across the central US. These ingredients could make for quite a temperature roller coaster ride and a couple significant storms in the mid-Atlantic region in the coming weeks. See the March Outlook below for more details.

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STAT OF THE MONTH

While January 2004 featured twenty-two days with a high temperature at or below freezing (the second greatest monthly total on record), February produced just four such below-freezing days.

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

The most impressive storm of the month moved through on the 6^th dropping 1.78 inches of rain. This lone storm produced about 70 percent of total precipitation for this 29-day period.

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FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

Average High Temp: 40.1 F

Average Low Temp: 22.5 F

Average Monthly Temp: 31.3 F

(Departure from Normal: -1.5 F)

Snowfall: 1.3 inches

(Departure from Normal: -6.9)

Total Precipitation (liquid equivalent): 2.63 inches

(Departure from Normal: +0.16)

Annual Precipitation: 4.69 inches

(Departure from Normal: -0.79)

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MARCH NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

Normal high/low temperatures increase rapidly from 46/26 on March 1st to 59/36 on the 31st. The record high for March is 88 degrees (1921, 1945) and the record low is –1 F (1984). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 3.38 inches. Average snowfall for the month is 3.7 inches.

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MARCH OUTLOOK

Winter, as we knew it this year, is over. January 2004 featured sustained much-below normal conditions, with the last 24 days rivaling the coldest month on record (January 1977). January also brought us above normal snowfall. February began cold and stormy, but rapidly turned dry and nearly seasonable. So, I expect this trend will lead to normal to above normal temperatures, in aggregate, for March.

The current jet stream pattern supports this idea. Whereas high-latitude blocking was the hallmark of the persistently cold pattern in January, a more progressive pattern looks like it’s taking hold. Such a pattern will likely produce a few spells of snow and cold in the Rockies and Northern Plains, while a couple rounds of unseasonably mild weather occur from the Plains to the East coast.

Still, there is significant snowcover across Canada and a large area of very cold air over the Arctic. Thus, a significant jet stream amplification could draw a brief blast of arctic air into the eastern US that might be accompanied by late-season snowfall across parts of the Commonwealth. Such an amplification and storm looks possible sometime between March 9^th and 16^th. Otherwise, the month may be characterized by lots of clouds, mild temperatures, and frequently windy conditions.