MUWIC Newsletter - April 2006

(Issued: April 5, 2006)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

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LEAD STORY: “Driest March on Record”

March featured a couple of Spring-like warm spells, but little in the way of precipitation. While it’s notable that high temperatures soared into the 70s on four occasions, it’s even more remarkable that it rained just twice all month. Measurable precipitation was recorded on March 2^nd (0.23”) and March 12^th (0.42”), making for the least March rainfall (0.65”) on record. This shatters the previous record of 0.99” set in 1981.

A nineteen-day dry spell—March 13^th through the 31^st—has resulted in unusually dry surface soil conditions and below-normal stream flow as we enter the Spring season. Still, any talk of a drought is premature as reservoirs, wells, and deep soil moisture are not far from normal. Should March’s dry weather pattern continue through April and May, however, the lack of rainfall would present serious problems for agricultural interests. See the Extended Outlook below for a look at what April may bring.

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

Although no record highs were set, the period of March 9– 14^th was remarkably warm with temperatures averaging 17 degrees above normal. The warm spell peaked on March 12^th with a June-like high temperature of 79 degrees.

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MARCH CLIMATOLOGY

Average High Temp: 52.4 F

Average Low Temp: 33.3 F

Average Monthly Temp: 42.9 F

(Departure from Normal: +1.5 F)

Snowfall: Trace

(Departure from Normal: -4.4 in.)

Precipitation: 0.65 inches

(Departure from Normal: -2.73)

Annual Precipitation: 6.61 inches

(Departure from Normal: -2.25)

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APRIL NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

Normal high/low temperatures range from 59/37 on April 1st to 70/44 by month's end. The record high for April is 95 degrees (on 4/18/76) and the record low is 11 F (on 4/1/23). Normal liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) is 3.47 inches. Measurable snow falls in April on an average of once every five years. The rainiest April on record occurred in 1983 (9.14 inches) while the driest April was just two years later (0.39 inches in 1985).

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APRIL OUTLOOK

After the driest March on record, let’s hope that April showers come to fruition in the coming weeks. We’ve already received a half-inch of rain this month (through April 4^th), and I see the potential for more shower activity this upcoming weekend. Still, the large-scale pattern continues to favor a mean trough in the West and a ridge over the Southeast. So while above-normal rainfall is likely along the west coast this month, I fear that many locations near the east coast will again receive below-normal precipitation.

As for temperatures, I see a continued warm bias across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states. A couple of modest cold spells (like our current chilly weather) are likely as lingering chill over eastern Canada drops in from the north from time to time. However, building warmth in the southern Plains will frequently expand eastward and bring several enjoyable warm spells. Therefore, I expect above-normal days to out number below-normal days, with an aggregate temperature anomaly for April roughly two or four degrees above normal.