MUWIC Newsletter - June 2002

(Issued: June 4, 2002)

 

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

 

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LEAD STORY: "Drought Conditions Ease"

 

Twenty Pennsylvania counties remain in a Drought Emergency despite a persistently cool, damp May. Monthly precipitation was normal to above normal everywhere across the region with between 3.5 and 7.0 inches falling. Another good sign of the easing drought is that surface moisture and stream levels have rebounded to the highest levels since early last summer.

 

While it could be argued that there has been enough improvement to downgrade the Drought Emergency to a Drought Warning, it might be prudent to maintain the higher status level since we are now entering the hottest time of the year. Evaporation rates will increase dramatically in the coming weeks as high temperatures regularly reach the 80s and 90s. Without a continuation of May's showery pattern, conditions will undoubtedly worsen.

 

In the short term, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the next couple of days and some may contain heavy downpours. Therefore, as with the storms last month, some neighborhoods can pick up double or triple the rainfall of other nearby communities. See the monthly outlook (below) for further insight into what may be in store in the coming weeks.

 

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

 

Two consecutive record lows were set on May 21st  (34F) and May 22nd (33F). Much of the county received the latest frost seen in several years.

 

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STAT OF THE MONTH

 

May 2002 featured the most total precipitation since August 2001. Official rainfall measured at the Millersville Weather Center was 3.51 inches, though, other parts of the county received more or less.

 

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MAY CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

 

Average High Temp: 72 F

Average Low Temp:  49 F                                                   

Average Monthly Temp: 60.5 F                                         

(Departure from Normal:  -0.5 F)

                  

Precipitation: 3.51 inches  

(Departure from Normal: -0.11)   

Annual Precipitation: 11.08 inches              

(Departure from Normal: -4.87)

 

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JUNE NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

 

Normal high/low temperatures range from 78/55 on June 1st to 83/61 by month's end. The record high for June is 103 degrees set on the 20th of 1923 and 29th of 1934. The lowest temperature recorded in June is 33 F set on the 5th of 1921 and the 8th of 1932. Normal liquid precipitation for the month is 3.88 inches. The rainiest June on record (14.14 inches) occurred in 1972 when the remains of Hurricane Agnes moved through the region. The driest June was in 1966 when only 0.54 inches fell. Summer officially begins on June 21st.

 

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JUNE OUTLOOK

 

May featured numerous below normal days as a strong jet stream trough locked in for much of the month over Eastern Canada and the Northeast. I expect this feature will persist well into June, though, with much less amplitude than in recent weeks. Meanwhile, I expect a mean ridge position to remain over the southern plains states and, thus, the core of the above normal temperatures should be centered around Texas.

 

Given the above factors, June may yield a rollercoaster ride of sorts as heat attempts to expand east from the plains and then gets cut off by occasional cold fronts pressing down from Canada. The magnitude of the warm ups will likely be greater than that of the cool periods, so overall June may average out a bit above normal. I do expect we'll see high temperatures hit 90F on a few occasions but the above pattern is not favorable for producing a long-lasting heat wave.

 

What this pattern may produce is a continued chance of frequently showers, especially on days that cold fronts pass though the region. Given that June climatologically exhibits a higher chance of severe weather, it would seem reasonable that we'll have a couple severe weather days across the region. In the end, total rainfall for the month may (again) vary widely across the county depending on the luck of just where these hit-or-miss storms strike.

 

COPYRIGHT 2002 Millersville University

 

Published monthly by the Millersville University Weather Information Center.

Subscribe on our homepage at www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic

 

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