MUWIC Newsletter - October 2002

(Issued: October 2, 2002)

 

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

 

************************************************************************

 

LEAD STORY: “Drought Emergency Continues Despite Isidore’s Rain”

 

The remains of once Hurricane Isidore thankfully brought a soaking two-inch rainfall to Lancaster county. Lawns and gardens now possess adequate moisture for the first time since early summer and river flows have increased dramatically off record low values of previous weeks. However, groundwater levels (well depths) and major reservoirs show very little improvement. Consequently, a Drought Emergency declaration remains in effect for 19 counties including Lancaster.

 

With tropical storm season winding down, it’s looking more and more likely the drought will carry over into the Winter season. Six to eight inches of rain would need to fall in October or more than twelve inches before year’s end in order to end the drought. Neither of these looks likely given the current weather pattern, so our hopes for breaking the drought may rest on the prospects of a stormy Winter.

 

************************************************************************

 

EVENT OF THE MONTH

 

Rainfall associated with the remains of Hurricane Isidore moved through the region on September 26th and 27th. Rainfall across the county ranged from 1.75 to 2.5 inches, which is more than that received in the previous 30 days.

 

************************************************************************

 

SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

 

Average High Temp:  80.3 F

Average Low Temp:  58.5 F                                                   

Average Monthly Temp: 69.4  F                                         

(Departure from Normal: + 4.3 F)

                                       

Precipitation:  2.60 inches  

(Departure from Normal: -1.02)   

Annual Precipitation:  20.21 inches              

(Departure from Normal: -11.72)

 

************************************************************************

 

OCTOBER NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

 

Normal rainfall for October is 3.00 inches making this the third driest month of the year.

The wettest October on record was in 1932 (8.39 inches); the driest was in 1963 when no

measurable precipitation fell. Normal high and low temperatures for October range from 71/47 (high/low) on the 1st to 61/38 on the 30th. The record high for the month is 95F (set on the 4th in 1941); the record low is 19F (set on several different days and years). Finally, Daylight Savings ends on the 28th of this month.

 

************************************************************************

 

OCTOBER OUTLOOK

 

September continued the trend of unseasonable warmth and dryness, as forecast in the previous newsletter. In aggregate, temperatures were 4.3 degrees above normal (8th warmest on record) and rainfall was an inch below normal. I expect this same trend to continue through much of October, although an increasingly amplified pattern should produce a less dramatic overall anomaly.

 

Early October will feature a spell of late-summer weather as an impressive jet stream ridge builds along the east coast. Highs will likely reach the low 80s a few more times during the first week of October, and there could be a period of unusually high humidity (for Fall) as the remains of hurricane Lili pass by to our northwest. Meanwhile, a Typhoon recurving in the western Pacific may signal the development of a trough in the eastern half of the U.S. during the second week of October. However, I feel any such amplification will be transient and give way to resurgence of mild weather in the East. Bottom line: October temperatures will likely come in above normal, though, not as much so as in September.

 

Major drought relief is not likely during October, as it’s climatologically the third driest month of the year. There does remain some chance of tropical input to the pattern, although it looks like the greatest rainfall from Lili will occur west of the Appalachians. (Our area may only pick up some scattered showers from her on October 4th or 5th.) It’s possible that one more tropical system may effect the eastern US this season, but our hopes for meaningful rain will soon shift to the development of cold season mid-latitude cyclones (most common November through April).

 

COPYRIGHT 2002 Millersville University

 

Published monthly by the Millersville University Weather Information Center.

Subscribe on our homepage at www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic

 

************************************************************************

             *** Bookmark our web site at: www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic ***

************************************************************************