MUWIC Newsletter - October
2005 (Issued: October 3, 2005) Millersville University
Weather Information Center (MUWIC) Eric J. Horst, Director *********************************************************************** LEAD STORY: "Warmest
September on Record" The consistently warm
conditions of recent months came to a crescendo last month with the greatest
departure from normal of any September on record. The average temperature for
was 70.9 degrees, which is 5.9 degrees above the long-term monthly average for
September. This comes on the heels of three consecutive summer months with
above normal conditions. The monthly temperature anomalies for June, July, and
August were +3.5, +2.4, and +4.6, respectively, making June through September
the warmest four-month period on record here in Lancaster. In addition to the
prevailing warmth, it remained uncommonly dry throughout September. Only one
inch of rain fell across the county, and this increases our year-to-date
rainfall deficit to over eight inches. Meanwhile, the topics remained active
with five named storms during September. View tracks of this year's storms: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at2005.gif *********************************************************************** EVENT OF THE MONTH Hurricane Rita became the
second tropical cyclone of the season to reach rare Category 5 status. This is
only the third time on record that two hurricanes have achieved Cat 5 status in
the same season in the Atlantic basin. 1960 and 1961 both featured two
hurricanes of Cat 5 strength. *********************************************************************** STAT OF THE MONTH High temperatures reached
the 80-degree benchmark on each of the first twenty-three days of September.
This is the longest streak of consecutive 80-degree days on record in
September. The previous record was eighteen days set in 1930. *********************************************************************** SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY (MU
Weather Station) Average High Temp: 83.0 F Average Low Temp: 58.8
F Average Monthly Temp: 70.9
F
(Departure from Normal: +
5.9 F) Precipitation: 1.02
inches (Departure from Normal:
+2.60) Annual Precipitation: 23.84
inches (Departure from Normal:
-8.09) *********************************************************************** OCTOBER NORMALS, RECORDS
& FACTS Normal rainfall for October
is 3.00 inches making this the third driest month of the year. The wettest October on
record was in 1932 (8.39 inches); the driest was in 1963 when no measurable precipitation
fell. Normal high and low temperatures for October range from 71/47 (high/low)
on the 1st to 61/38 on the 30th. The record high for the month is 95F (set on
the 4th in 1941); the record low is 19F (set on several different days and
years). Finally, Daylight Savings ends on the 30th. *********************************************************************** OCTOBER OUTLOOK A guiding principle of sage
forecasters is that "the trend is your friend." Thus, if it's been
"warm and dry" in recent days and weeks, it would be unwise to
forecast a dramatic change to cooler, wetter conditions. But that is exactly my
forecast for mid-October. Yes, it currently (October 3rd) feels like
late-summer outside, but I'm going out on a limb (with a saw in my hand) and
forecasting a significant change beginning around October 8th. September's average
temperature was 5.9 degrees above normal and rainfall that was 2.6 inches below
normal. Pattern modification will yield both more rainfall and cooler
temperatures (relative to normal) over the next two weeks. So, while the first
week of October will conclude much above normal, a new trend of near-normal
conditions will develop during mid-month. I can't rule out an occasional warm
day, however, I expect the period of October 8 - 31st to average out within 2
degrees of normal. Given the extremely warm first week of October, the final
monthly anomaly will likely be positive--but to a lesser extent than the last
two months (which were +4.6 and +5.9). Quantity of precipitation
during the first half of Fall is largely related to tropical influence.
Assuming a few more tropical systems in October, there's a possibility of one
or two soaking rains in teh coming weeks. One such event is possible October
7th or 8th, and a second event might occur between the 15th and 20th. Should
these two events fail to materialize, then October would likely end up below
normal on precipitation. COPYRIGHT 2005 Millersville
University Published monthly by the
Millersville University Weather Information Center. Subscribe on our homepage at
www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic *********************************************************************** *** Bookmark our web site at: www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic
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