MUWIC Newsletter - November 2002

(Issued: November 1, 2002)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

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LEAD STORY: “Stormy October KO’s Drought”

It’s not yet official, but the severe drought of the last two years is just about down and out. In a dramatic turnaround from previous months over 200 percent of normal precipitation fell during October. Surface moisture and stream flows have both responded by returning to normal or above normal levels. Therefore, in terms of what we can observe at the earth’s surface, the drought is history.

However, since ground water levels respond more slowly, many wells remain significantly below normal. Consequently the Commonwealth will likely maintain the Drought Emergency designation for a few more weeks. Therefore, to the chagrin of many individuals (with soggy backyards) the water-use restrictions remain in place.

The stormy pattern of recent weeks promises more rain in the coming weeks. Should November and December feature normal to above normal precipitation it’s hard to imagine the drought surviving into the New Year.

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

October 10^th and 11^th featured a steady soaking rain the likes we have not seen since September of 2000. Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches fell across the county giving us about a month’s worth of rain in less than 48 hours.

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OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

Average High Temp: 61.5 F

Average Low Temp: 46 F

Average Monthly Temp: 53.7 F

(Departure from Normal: - 0.2 F)

Precipitation: 6.33 inches

(Departure from Normal: + 3.33)

Annual Precipitation: 26.54 inches

(Departure from Normal: -8.39)

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NOVEMBER NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

November features the largest beginning-to-end drop in normal temperatures. The month begins with pleasant average high/low temperatures of 60/38, but ends with much more winter-like normals of 46/28. Average rainfall for the month is 3.53 inches, while average snowfall is one-half inch. Measurable snow occurs roughly once every four years. Extremes: Record high - 84 on 11/2/82; Record low - 1 on 11/29/38; Wettest November - 8.05" in 1972; Driest November - 0.58" in 1931 & 1938.

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NOVEMBER OUTLOOK

The first week of November promises to feature a continuation of the colder-than-normal pattern we’ve become used to during the second half of October. In fact, the first seven days of November will likely average about 10 degrees below the seasonal norms, thus making it feel more like the first week of December.

There are signs, however, that the highly amplified jet stream pattern will begin to relax during the period of November 8^th to 15^th. If so, we might actually see a moderating trend back toward normal temperatures (highs of 55 to 60F) during this period. Beyond that, I’d say there is equal chance that the month will finish up “normal” or “below normal”. A complete reversal back to the warm and dry pattern of early Fall is much less likely.

It’s a good bet that at least near normal precipitation will fall this month. While I doubt we’ll have as much deep moisture available to produce frequent heavy rains such as we experienced in October, a relatively active southern jet stream branch should send a few storms our way. One such storm may bring a steady cold rain around November 5^th or 6^th—there might even be another round of wet snow in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania. By month’s end, I expect we will have received somewhere around the 3.15 inches of rain (the long-term average for November).

I will issue my Winter Outlook in the December WIC Newsletter (out December 3^rd).