MUWIC Newsletter - November 2006

(Issued: November 2, 2006)

Millersville University Weather Information Center (MUWIC)

Eric J. Horst, Director

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LEAD STORY: “A Month of Extremes”

How do you like your Octobers: Warm and pleasant, or blustery and cold? Whichever your preference, there was something for everyone to enjoy this October as the weather pattern produced both extremes. The month began with a period of late-summer conditions and highs reaching 82 and 80 degrees on the 3^rd and 4^th, respectively. However, a mid-month pattern change produced four consecutive frosty mornings—and an end to the growing season—beginning on October 13^th. A period of Indian Summer then developed on the 18^th, but the mild weather quickly gave way to another blast of unseasonable chill for the last week of the month.

In terms of weather impacts, scattered showers and gusty winds made several appearances. A wind gust to 59 mph was recorded at the MU Weather Center on October 20^th as a strong cold front passed through; another late-month front produced a gust to 43 mph on the 29^th. The heaviest shower activity occurred on the 27^th into the 28^th with about 1.5 inches falling in the Lancaster area. In aggregate, the month’s total rainfall was near the normal three-inch amount.

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EVENT OF THE MONTH

A rare October blizzard hit Buffalo, NY, on October 12^th and 13^th as the season’s first shot of arctic air moved into the Northeastern US. Unseasonably cold air crossing the warm waters of Lake Erie produced nearly two feet of lake-effect snowfall in a narrow stripe just downwind of the lake.

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OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY (MU Weather Station)

Average High Temp: 64.0 F

Average Low Temp: 43.7 F

Average Monthly Temp: 53.8 F

(Departure from Normal: -0.1 F)

Precipitation: 2.95 inches

(Departure from Normal: -0.05)

Annual Precipitation: 39.69 inches

(Departure from Normal: +4.76)

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NOVEMBER NORMALS, RECORDS & FACTS

November features the largest beginning-to-end drop in normal temperatures. The month begins with pleasant average high/low temperatures of 60/38, but ends with much more winter-like normals of 46/28. Average rainfall for the month is 3.53 inches, while average snowfall is about one inch. Measurable snow occurs roughly once every four years. Extremes: Record high - 84 on 11/2/82; Record low - 1 on 11/29/38; Wettest November - 8.05" in 1972; Driest November - 0.58" in 1931 & 1938.

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NOVEMBER OUTLOOK

A persistent jet stream block across the high latitudes of North America resulted in a colder-than-normal second half of October. Despite a very warm day on November 1^st, this cold bias will continue into early November. I do see signs, however, that the blocking pattern is beginning to break down and, thus, I expect a milder pattern to develop after November 6^th. Pacific air will flood North America from the central plains of Canada southward through the heartland of America. Mild air will work eastward and likely push our high temperatures into the 60s (perhaps near 70), so expect another spell of Indian Summer on the heels of coldest air of the Fall season (November 3^rd and 4th).

Developing zonal (west-to-east) flow will result in a less stormy pattern across much of the country next week. Still, a slow-moving storm may develop along the Gull coast and this system may brush our area with some rain around November 10^th. Beyond that I see a more seasonal pattern emerging with glancing blows of chilly air and occasional above-normal days. In aggregate, the mid-month may exhibit a slight warm bias. A return to a more persistently cold pattern could develop around Thanksgiving, or soon thereafter.