MU's Current Conditions: (at 22:36) Temp: 75 F | Dew Point: missing | Wind: WNW - 2 mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* First Heat Wave Possible for Beginning of July *

9:00am Friday, June 22:
After a wet, cool start, June has gradually turned seasonably warm and humid as the large-scale pattern slowly evolves towards a mid-summer-like configuration. Lingering troughiness over New England and eastern Canada remains an influence, however, with glancing cool fronts still a part of our pattern. Of course, cold fronts this time of year aren't so cold...but they do bring a lowering of humidity for a day or two. Looking ahead, however, I do see a building jet stream ridge over the eastern half of the US...which may provide for our first heat wave of the year for the start of July.

Short-term, the next couple of days will be dominated by damp low-level flow off the expect lots of clouds, passing showers, and rising humidity. A period of steadier rain--perhaps even a rumble of thunder--is possible later tonight into Saturday midday. Skies may brighten later Saturday afternoon, but Sunday will be the sunnier day of the weekend. Clouds will hold high temps today and Saturday in the mid 70s to ~80, but Sunday will warm into the mid 80s. Add in rising dew points into the low 70s this weekend, and it will feel quite muggy.

One of those glancing cold fronts mentioned above will drop through Sunday night into Monday, and a more comfortable air mass will take hold Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies, moderate humidity and highs in the low 80s will make for two splendid days. A passing warm front next Wednesday may yield a shower or storm, after which heat will begin to build east for the final days of the month...with highs likely in the upper 80s next Wednesday and Thursday.

Beyond that, I can see how the first heat wave (3 or more consecutive days >=90) of the season might develop here into the opening days of July. Our first shots at 90 degrees come on June 29 and 30th...and it's possible that we will string a few more 90 degree days into early July. So right on schedule, we have a classic summer pattern setting up for the days preceding the 4th of July. Enjoy!

Note: I'll be on vacation next week into mid-July, so this discussion will not be updated for a few weeks. --Horst

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