MU's Current Conditions: (at 06:12) Temp: 62 F | Dew Point: 62 | Wind: - calm mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* Classic "Dog Days" Conditions Thru August 22nd *

10:00am Friday, August 18:

While it won't qualify as a heat wave, the next 5 days will be an impressive spell of warm, muggy conditions with highs between 85 - 90 each day. Dew points this morning are hovering around 74, which is Gulf-coast-like moisture content. This will help fuel a few afternoon showers/storms, with briefly heavy downpours, ahead of a weak cold front limping through this evening.

High pressure will then take control for the period Saturday through Tuesday. In the wake of this evening's front, dew points will pull back somewhat for the weekend--therefore, it won't feel quite as humid on Saturday and Sunday, although high temps will rise back into the mid/upper 80s both days. Monday and Tuesday will be a few degree warmer and turning gradually more humid as a jet stream ridge builds over the southeastern states. These may be two of the warmest days we see until next summer--if not for the eclipse reducing Monday's total insolation, I'd forecast highs of ~90 both days. Instead, our official forecast is 88 and 90 for Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Mostly sunny skies will make for good viewing of the eclipse locally--be sure to use appropriate eye protection, or use a pin-hole viewer (see video below).

Another front (and chance of a passing shower) looks on track for next Tuesday PM or Wednesday, as a strong long-wave trough builds slowly from the Upper Lakes to the Northeast the second half of next week. This system is a significant change from the pattern of the next 5 days...and so temperatures will depart below normal for a few days after the mid-week frontal passage. A large area of Canadian high pressure should drift across the region August 24 - 27th bringing very pleasant--almost early-Fall-like--conditions with highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. I'm looking forward to it! --Horst




2:00pm Tuesday, August 15:
As of late, I've had a lot of requests for another bout of hot, humid conditions--after all, temperatures have been running cooler than normal (see Tweet below) with only one 90-degree day so far in August. While persistent jet stream troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast as brought us a parade of cold fronts, cloudy days, and frequent showers, there will be a subtle shift--but NOT a pattern change--that should allow for a few days with highs between 85 - 90 between August 16 and 23rd.

The disturbance responsible for today's cloudy, damps and cooler-than-normal conditions will exit by this evening, perhaps with a late-day period of sunshine. Patchy fog early Wednesday should yield to mostly sunny skies and warm afternoon near 86 degrees (2 degrees above normal for a change). Another disturbance will bring a return of clouds by late Thursday and a chance of a few showers (perhaps isolated strong storms) on Friday afternoon or evening. High temps on Thursday and Friday will depend on minutes of sunshine....so only in the low 80s given lots of clouds or mid/upper 80s given enough afternoon sunshine. Either way, it will be quite humid with dew points climbing to near 70. Overall, a very August-like end to the week.

The weekend also looks seasonably warm & humid with highs in the mid 80s and dew points holding in the mid/upper 60s. A lingering shower is possible as an upper-level system moves through, but the majority of the weekend will be dry. Next Monday and Tuesday look like our best chance to reach the 90-degree mark as a ridge building over the Southeastern states displaces the jet stream northward. Interestingly, Monday's solar eclipse comes during what is normally the hottest part of the day--the significant loss of insolation (solar radiation) during the eclipse will actually result a period of mid-afternoon cooling! It's quite possible that temperatures will reach the upper 80s prior to the eclipse, then pull back a few degrees during the peak of the eclipse...only to climb back into the upper 80s later in the afternoon. This scenario assumes a mainly clear sky (few if any clouds) on Monday--that's my current forecast, but details could certainly change over the next 6 days. Developing... --Horst



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