MU's Current Conditions: (at 16:29) Temp: 35 F | Dew Point: 22 | Wind: NNW - 23 mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* Winter 2019: Definitely Not Over... *

Friday, February 15, 2019:
As I write this update, it's a glorious 60 degrees outside! Still, we have some snow, sleet, and rain in our future...and like the mailman, I have a forecast to deliver in spite of bad weather. :-)

First up, we have a weak cold front moving through early this evening...followed by a weak high pressure that will track by to our north this weekend. As mentioned in my Wednesday discussion (below), there are two disturbances in the fast Pacific flow that will track by this weekend. The first system will be a "miss" Saturday morning. The second system will be a minor hit Sunday night. Barring late organization, this system will be fledgling...and with marginal temps, I expect a wintry mix of light snow, sleet, and perhaps freezing drizzle Sunday evening. Best chance for some for a slippery coating to fall is between ~5:00pm Sunday and 3:00am Monday.

Monday and Tuesday will be seasonable (low 40s) ahead of a potentially stronger storm arriving late Tuesday night into Wednesday. It's another split-flow storm with enough cold air to the north for a moderate snow. Of course, the exact track is unknowable at this time...and like past events it might pass over us, thus making for a wintry mix. Check back here Monday and I'll nail it down.

Beyond that...I see more of the same--Pacific disturbances and borderline events--into the final days of February. One concern I have, however, is a period of high latitude blocking that might develop around month's end. If so, then we might lock in colder air for the first part of March. (I hope I'm wrong on this!) --Horst


Wednesday, February 13, 2019:
After the long two-part storm (Sunday night through Tuesday night), we have a three-day break before a series of Pacific disturbances track near or over us between Saturday and next Wednesday. High pressure taking control tonight will make for a pleasant, seasonable Thursday. As this system exits Friday, however, southwest flow will pump temps into the 50s Friday before a cold front moves through with an isolated shower late towards sunset. Then, things getting interesting...and uncertain.

Currently, there's a massive jet stream trough stretching from the US Northwest coast back to Hawaii. Multiple systems moving through this "Pineapple Express" will pummel the west coast with heavy rain and mountain snows. These disturbances will degrade significantly crossing the Rockies, then track into confluent flow over the Northeast this weekend into early next week. It's an intriguing set up...but impossible to nail down details on individual waves...until they emerge from the Rockies. Consequently, model-reading forecasters will flip and flop (run to run) like a fish out of water...whereas more prudent individuals will generally address the threats and uncertainty, but hold off on details until the situation becomes more clear.

Accordingly, I'll keep it short for now--check back Friday for a more nuanced take. The weekend will bring two systems skirting south or nearly over us....one Saturday (likely just south or a "miss") and the next on Sunday PM (possibly over us). There will be just enough cold air for some snow or flurries given a southerly track...but a "wintry mix" is likely with a track near or over us. A third system looks to be in the queue for sometime late Tuesday or next Wednesday. Again, track and timing are critical factors with each of these systems...and as of Noon Wednesday, all these systems are still out over the Pacific...and, thus, known unknowns. --Horst


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